Coverage + blitz analysis
Calculate real defensive scheme frequencies from play-charting records and estimate a receiver's yards using their yards-per-target splits. ESPN's standard box scores do not contain coverage labels or blitz classifications. Import verified charting data to produce real matchup figures. No default scheme percentages are fabricated.
Experimental model, not a verified prediction service. Charting definitions, missing plays, opponent adjustments and sample size matter.
1 · Load charting data
Import a CSV file or paste CSV rows. Each row represents one defensive pass play. Columns: defense,play_id,coverage,blitz,player,targets,yards. blitz is 1 or 0; targets is 1 or 0; yards is receiving yards on the target (0 for incompletion). Player may be empty when no target for that player. To chart multiple players targeted on a play, do not duplicate the same defensive play ID; a pass play has only one target in this model.
No play-charting records loaded.
Accepted coverage labels: Cover 0, Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, 2-Man, Other, Unknown. Coverage frequencies use plays with a known coverage. Blitz rate uses plays with a known blitz flag. These are separate dimensions and should not sum together.
2 · Select matchup
The model shrinks small coverage samples toward the player's overall yards per target. It assumes your expected targets and the opponent's charted coverage mix. It does not infer how often a defense will blitz on future plays or how a player performs against blitzes unless the uploaded records include those plays.
3 · Matchup results
Import data to see calculations.
Data and calculation rules
Coverage rate = defensive pass plays charted as a coverage ÷ pass plays with known coverage. Blitz rate = pass plays with blitz=1 ÷ plays with known blitz flag. Player yards/target = receiving yards ÷ targets against each coverage. Expected yards = expected targets × Σ(defense coverage rate × smoothed player yards/target for that coverage).
Because defensive charting and player production may come from different games, this is an exploratory comparison rather than a causal effect or guaranteed outcome. Do not interpret the highest yards-per-target coverage as a proven strength without enough plays. ESPN remains the source for ordinary NFL box scores elsewhere in StatScope; coverage charting must be supplied separately.